Can Africa Do It?

The smoke has cleared in Somalia. The Islamic Courts Union, whether its rule was good or bad, is now nothing more than a memory. During the ICU control of Mogadishu, several Internet cafes were set up throughout the city- a sign of some kind of "Western" normalcy pleasantly replacing the khat-induced bloodbaths that were such a vivid memory of the UN Operation Enduring Hope. The ICU, acknowledging that khat does make you crazy, banned the use of the drug which had become a daily activity for many Somalis. The price of an AK-47 assault rifle in the open-air arms bazaars of the city shot way up as supply reduced when the ICU reined in the Klinsyr clan and its particularly ambitious warlord- the same group responsible for smuggling a huge volume of small arms and light weapons from the Middle East into Somalia as well as some of the recent acts of piracy in the Suez Canal.

There was a brief flurry of violence as the Ethiopian military and the small vestiges of the legal government of Somalia pushed into Mogadishu to displace the ICU. The Americans dropped a rain of bombs for good measure, claiming those crazy al-Qaeda guys were hiding in random villages, but succeeded only in killing swathes of civilians. The Internet cafes closed down. The price of AK-47's continued to increase as demand now went up and the supply remained at a fairly small trickle because of the recovering Klinsyr operations. It could have been a disaster in the making- another "Black Hawk Down", but this time with Ethiopians against Somalis in the heart of Mogadishu.

But the Ethiopians did something smart. They realized that if they moved their troops into the capital of their neighbour, it would be interpreted as an act of war by the people of Somalia. The Ethiopians would not be liberators, come to save them from an oppressive Islamist regime. Instead, they would be seen as conquerors come to deliver the final death blow to Somalia- so fearful of the might of the Cish people. The propaganda prospects would simply be unlimited for the ICU. They could whip the people of Mogadishu up into such a frenzy, they wouldn't need khat to get every man, woman and child to grab the nearest inanimate object and use it as a weapon against the hapless Ethiopian force.

Knowing this, the Ethiopians stopped their force outside Mogadishu's outskirts and told the Somali government's forces to seize the capital themselves. If the legitimate government wanted to exert its legal authority over Mogadishu, it would have to do it with legitimate government forces, not their friends. This was an interesting juxtaposition from the Americans, who micro-manage many of the conflicts they become involved in internationally. The Americans are only now just making serious efforts to hand over authority for peacekeeping and policing in Iraq to the actual Iraqi government. For the longest time, the Americans simply disempowered the new regime in Iraq by insisting on using American forces to solve Iraqi problems. The Ethiopians, on the other hand, had their strategy quite well-conceived before moving into Somalia to oust the ICU.

The Ethiopians even have an exit strategy. This will make sure that the Somali people, and any demagogues that might try to advantage of the situation, do not see that the Ethiopian force is an occupation force intent on either absorbing the troubled country into itself or is trying a neo-imperial gambit in the region. Who will be taking Ethiopia's place in assuring security in the country while the UN-sponsored government asserts its control? The African Union.

If you're apprehensive about the idea of African Union troops trying to ensure security in Somalia, you're not the only one. The African Union has made little progress in stopping the Janjaweed massacres in Sudan. In fact, nearly every pan-African collective security agreement and peacekeeping operation has failed miserably. The history of mistakes, errors, and poor planning is a long one. Explaining what went wrong and how things could have been done better in the history of the African Union and its predecessors, the Union of African States and the Organization for African Unity, could easily be the topic of a thesis, and is far too detailed a topic to get into here. Sudan is a nasty place. The Janjaweed have a great deal of resources at their disposal, what with having the support of the Sudanese government in Khartoum. But Somalia is an even more difficult place, having a long history of internecine warfare and being heavily armed through American and Soviet meddling during the Cold War (Colt and RSA used Somalia as a weapons proving ground, equipping rival militias with experimental weapons, then watching the news to find out how many casualties their weapons were able to inflict, then modifying their weapons accordingly). If the African Union has its hands full with Sudan, how can it seriously hope to handle Somalia?

When one looks at the list of countries providing troops to the Somalia operation, ones hopes are not dramatically raised. South Africa, Nigeria, Uganda, and Malawi. South Africa has a very advanced war machine at its disposal. The Nigerians try hard, and make up for the lack of weapons technology with their effort. Uganda was the home of Idi Amin, and it is still believed that Hutu generals escaped from Rwanda into Uganda and continue to mastermind the chaos of the Congo from the comfort of Uganda. Malawi has long been embroiled with rebels of various causes that keep giving the government a hard time through guerilla warfare. It's not encouraging.

So the question is: Can African do it? Can Africa break the long tradition of botched operations and dependency on Europe to get anything done in terms of providing security and defending human rights? I suppose we'll find out soon enough. The first detachments of the African Union peacekeeping mission are due to arrive in Somalia to begin relieving Ethiopian troops next week.