The (Spectre of a) Chinese Threat

The following is an article by the Associated Free Press found on Yahoo! News.

Latest Chinese missile to target US carriers: report
TOKYO (AFP) - China plans to equip its upcoming missiles with infrared
technology to give them the ability to hit US warships in Asia, a Japanese
newspaper said Wednesday.

The upgrade is part of preparations for a potential conflict over
Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory and which has a security
pact with the United States, the Sankei Shimbun said.

Citing unnamed military sources in Japan and Taiwan, the conservative
newspaper said that China was developing an infrared detection system for its
medium-range Dongfeng-21 missiles so they can pinpoint warships.

The upgraded Dongfeng would discourage the United States or Japan from
sending in their warships equipped with the Aegis technology designed to shoot
down incoming missiles, the newspaper said.

The Dongfeng-21 has a range of some 2,150 kilometers (1,350 miles). The
Sankei estimated that around 100 are deployed.

Western analysts have also speculated that China is also developing a
next-generation long-range Dongfeng-41 capable of hitting the US mainland.

Beijing has repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan, where nationalists
fled in 1949 after losing the civil war to Mao Zedong's communists, if the
island declares formal independence.

The United States and Japan in a first-of-a-kind statement in February
2005 declared that a peaceful resolution of Taiwan Strait issues was a common
strategic objective of the Pacific allies.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/070516/usa/china_us_taiwan_japan_military

The question this raises is an interesting one. Is China really a threat? The Associated Free Press seems to think so. But, then again, all American-owned and operated media outlets during the Cold War were completely convinced that the Soviet Union was an imminent threat and that a red tide of communism would sweep across Europe and the rest of the world unless American governments continued to pursue a foreign policy of containment and the American people continued to vote for governments that would put money that could have improved the quality of life into military spending. Is China the new Soviet Union? The new threat that only exists in the imagination and on paper, but hardly not in reality?

Al-Qaeda and the threat of Islamo-fascism was the initial spectre which the American government seemed to wish to do imaginary battle with. But the problem with that route has become apparent. The Islamo-fascists might not have any military infrastructure or nice toys like the Soviets did, but they can certainly fight. Afghanistan and Iraq turned out much differently than what the Bush Administration thought they would. Afghanistan is turning out quite all right, yes. But the Afghanistan mission has required a significantly higher investment than what was initially anticipated. Sadly, there are still people working in defence policy who believe that there is such a thing as an "easy in, easy out" mission and that by simply killing the bad guys, you can create a successful and highly developed liberal democracy.

With a cost-benefit analysis, one can see that making the Islamo-fascists of the Taliban and al-Qaeda the enemies of America for the next 50 or so years would be highly unprofitable. With these enemies, it requires the US to engage them in direct action in order to make such an intangible enemy more "real" to the American public. And direct action results in casualties and the loss of resources. Casualties hurt the resolve of the American public and the loss of resources hurts the economy. The whole purpose of making an enemy for the American people to rally against is the benefit of the economy. Ever seen "Flags of our Fathers"? The average American will not care what really happened at Iwo Jima, but they will love to hear, see, eat, smell and touch the myth of it- the romanticized version. And in order to get a piece of that myth, they'll be willing to open their wallets. When they open their wallets, the ponderous wheels of the country's economy begin to turn even more rapidly and the people- or, at least, some of the people- get richer.

With a pull-out of American troops from Iraq seeming to be a very real possibility for the near future, is someone getting ready to make a much more profitable enemy? China would be as perfect as the Soviet Union was. China has nukes just like America does. With both sides pointing nuclear missiles at each other's capitals and main population centers, it would be suicidal for either side to engage each other directly. They could fight over resource-rich third-party countries to the conflict and skirmish with each other via proxy wars just as the US did with the USSR. Very few Chinese and Americans would die from the ordeal, but both sides would see great benefit to their military industrial complexes and, by extension, their economies. A mutually beneficial business partnership to some. A heinously amoral and wasteful endeavour to those of us who still have moral consciences.

Cold War Two anyone?